S&P Emini pre-open market analysis

Emini daily chart

The bulls gave up yesterday on the idea of a strong second leg up following last Thursday and Friday’s bull breakout.
- 在上周四和周五的牛市突破之后，多头昨天放弃了强劲的第二回合上涨的想法
The Emini is neutral going sideways into FOMC report today.
- Emini 对今天的 FOMC 报告持中立态度
The risk of being long following last week’s breakout was that the market was at the top of a month-long trading range.
- 上周突破后做多的风险在于市场处于一个月交易区间的顶部
Some bulls bought the bull breakout last Friday, assuming the market would break out above the April high. However, they likely used a tight stop and were quick to exit when the market hesitated on Monday or yesterday.
- 一些多头在上周五买入牛市突破，假设市场将突破 4 月高点。然而，他们很可能使用了严格的止损，并在周一或昨天市场犹豫时迅速退出
The bulls buying at the top of the trading range last Friday bought because the momentum was strong; however, when they sensed the momentum drying up, they would exit quickly.
- 上周五交易区间顶部的多头买入是因为势头强劲；然而，当他们感觉到动力枯竭时，他们会迅速退出
Some bears sold the April 2nd high, betting it was a bad signal bar in a tight bear channel and likely sellers above. Those bears bought back shorts back at the April 26th high yesterday.
- 一些空头卖出了 4 月 2 日的高点，押注这是紧缩空头通道中的一个坏信号线，上方可能是卖家。这些空头昨天在 4 月 26 日的高点买回了空头
The Bulls knew April 26th was a credible location to buy, and they likely had limit orders there too.
- 多头知道 4 月 26 日是一个可靠的买入地点，他们也可能在那里设置了限价单
The odds are the market will return to the May 1st close, allowing the scale in bulls out. However, the Bears may get a second leg down first.
- 很有可能市场将回到 5 月 1 日的收盘价，从而允许多头退出。然而，熊队可能会先倒下第二回合
A lot of bulls who bought the May 1st low likely bought more around the April 26th high. Because the selloff had strong momentum down, many of those bulls are sufficiently disappointed enough to be happy to exit breakeven on the entire trade, which is near 4,145.
- 许多在 5 月 1 日低点买入的多头可能在 4 月 26 日高点附近买入更多。由于抛售势头强劲，这些多头中的许多人都非常失望，以至于很高兴退出整个交易的盈亏平衡点，接近 4,145
Overall, the market is returning to neutral before the FOMC report at 11:00 AM PT/ 2:00 PM EST.
- 总体而言，市场在美国东部时间上午 11:00/美国东部时间下午 2:00 FOMC 报告之前回归中性
The past month has formed an expanding triangle and is in breakout mode, which means traders should be neutral going into the report and assume the probability is 50% for a measured move up or down based on the past month’s range.
- 过去一个月形成了一个扩大的三角形并处于突破模式，这意味着交易者在进入报告时应该保持中立，并假设根据过去一个月的范围向上或向下测量的概率为 50%

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

Emini is up 8 points in the overnight Globex session.
The overnight Globex market has gone sideways following yesterday’s strong selloff.
- 在昨天的强劲抛售之后，隔夜 Globex 市场横盘整理
The bears see yesterday’s selloff as strong enough to increase the odds of a second leg down.
- 空头认为昨天的抛售力度足以增加第二轮下跌的可能性
Traders should be open to a possible test of the lows of yesterday. However, because the pullback from yesterday’s low was so deep, the odds are that any selloff will form a higher low, and the market will continue sideways.
- 交易者应该对昨天低点的可能测试持开放态度。然而，由于从昨日低点的回调幅度如此之大，任何抛售都可能形成更高的低点，市场将继续横盘整理
Traders should assume today will have a lot of trading range price action. As I often say, most traders should wait for 6-12 bars before placing a trade unless they are comfortable with limit order trading.
- 交易者应该假设今天会有很多交易区间价格行动。正如我经常说的，大多数交易者应该在下单前等待 6-12 根柱线，除非他们对限价单交易感到满意
Most traders should try and catch the opening swing trade, which typically happens after the formation of a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom.
- 大多数交易者应该尝试抓住开盘摆动交易，这通常发生在双顶/双底或楔形顶/底形成之后
The most important thing is not to deny what the price action is doing. Price is truth, and no matter what your opinion is, if the market is doing the opposite, you must react accordingly.
- 最重要的是不要否认价格行为在做什么。价格是真理，无论你的意见是什么，如果市场走势相反，你必须做出相应的反应
Traders should be flat an hour before the FOMC report. Traders should wait for at least 2 bars following the FOMC release.
- 在 FOMC 报告发布前一个小时，交易员应该持平。交易者应在 FOMC 发布后等待至少 2 个柱线
Traders should be sure and trade small during the FOMC report as the bars can get very big. In general, most traders should trade a 20% position size.
- 交易者应该确定并在 FOMC 报告期间进行少量交易，因为条柱可能会变得非常大。一般而言，大多数交易者应交易 20% 的头寸规模

Emini intraday market update

The Emini has been in a trading range for most of the day.
- Emini 在一天的大部分时间里一直处于交易区间
The bulls got a strong rally up to bar 7; however, the bears took control, and the market sold off down to bar 18.
- 多头强劲反弹至第 7 根柱线；然而，空头控制了局面，市场抛售至 18 根柱线
Because of the opening rally, the odds were that any selloff below bar 1 would be a trading range and not lead to a bear trend.
- 由于开盘反弹，低于 1 条的任何抛售很可能是一个交易区间，不会导致熊市趋势
Most traders should be flat for at least an hour before going into the report. It is easy to get trapped into a losing trade, using a wide stop and scaling it. This is why it s better to be flat and wait.
- 在进入报告之前，大多数交易者应该保持至少一个小时的平稳状态。很容易陷入亏损的交易，使用广泛的止损并扩展它。这就是为什么最好保持平稳并等待
In general, most traders should wait for the 2nd bar after the FOMC to close before trading.
- 一般而言，大多数交易者应等待 FOMC 收盘后的第二根柱线才可交易
Since the bars will likely be big, trading small, such as 20% of one’s normal position size, is better.
- 由于条柱可能会很大，因此交易较小，例如正常头寸规模的 20%，会更好
Traders should be open to anything going into the report. A big move can happen, however, the odds favor a trading range. Traders should also assume that any big breakout during the first bar of the report and quickly reverse and go the opposite way.
- 交易员应该对报告中的任何内容持开放态度。可能会发生大动作，但是，赔率有利于交易区间。交易者还应该假设在报告的第一根柱线期间出现任何重大突破，并迅速反转并走相反的路