S&P Emini pre-open market analysis

Emini daily chart

The Emini formed two strong bull bars last week, reversing the past selloff ending on April 26th. However, the first reversal down likely to fail.
- Emini 上周形成了两条强劲的牛栏，扭转了过去于 4 月 26 日结束的抛售。然而，第一次反转下跌可能会失败
The rally over the past two trading days is strong enough to likely lead to a second leg-up.
- 过去两个交易日的反弹足够强劲，可能导致第二轮上涨
Some bears sold the high of April 26th and scaled in higher. After last Thursday’s strong bear close, many of those bears began to exit shorts. However, some bears are still short and will use the first reversal down to buy back shorts at a reduced loss.
- 一些空头卖出了 4 月 26 日的高点并走高。在上周四强势收盘后，许多空头开始退出空头。然而，一些空头仍然做空，并会利用第一次反转向下以减少的损失买回空头
There are bulls who are trapped out of a winning trade. The past two trading days were a big enough surprise, and those bulls were unprepared to buy. Since they are trapped out of a winning trade, they will use any pullback to enter a position at a lower price.
- 有些多头被困在获利的交易中。过去的两个交易日已经足够令人吃惊了，那些多头并没有准备好买入。由于他们被困在获利交易之外，他们将利用任何回调以较低的价格入场
At the moment, the odds favor a second leg up. This means that the market is Always In Long, and traders will look to buy for any reason betting on higher prices.
- 目前，赔率有利于第二回合。这意味着市场总是多头，交易者会出于任何理由押注更高的价格而寻求买入
At a minimum, the market will probably get above the February 2nd high and likely try and test 4,300.
- 至少，市场可能会突破 2 月 2 日的高点，并可能尝试测试 4,300
The bulls have done an excellent job over the past two trading days. However, they need to continue to impress traders. The market is still at the top of a trading range, and if the market begins to go sideway at resistance (February 2nd high), more and more traders will exit longs, and bears will start to establish shorts.
- 多头在过去两个交易日表现出色。然而，他们需要继续给交易员留下深刻印象。市场仍处于交易区间的顶部，如果市场开始在阻力位（2 月 2 日高点）横盘整理，越来越多的交易者将退出多头，空头将开始建立空头
Overall, the odds are that the market is probably going higher for at least a small second leg. The bears will need to undo the damage caused by the bulls before the bears have a chance at reversing the market.
- 总的来说，市场可能至少在第二回合走高。在空头有机会扭转市场之前，空头需要消除多头造成的损害

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

Emini is down 8 points in the overnight Globex session.
The overnight Globex session has been in a tight trading range on the 60-minute chart.
- 隔夜 Globex 交易时段在 60 分钟图表上处于窄幅交易区间
The bulls want the rally to continue and today to become another intense bull trend day.
- 多头希望涨势继续，今天将成为另一个激烈的牛市趋势日
More likely, today will disappoint the bulls as traders begin to take partial profits.
- 更有可能的是，由于交易员开始了结部分利润，今天会让多头失望
This means that traders should be open to today becoming a trading range day or a possible bear trend day.
- 这意味着交易者应该对今天成为交易区间日或可能的熊市趋势日持开放态度
Since the daily chart has had an intense two-day bull breakout, traders should be open to the possibility of today forming a weak bear trend (broad bear channel) and the bulls getting an upside breakout late in the day as buyers on the daily chart, try and enter at a lower price.
- 由于日线图已经连续两天出现牛市突破，交易者应该对今天形成弱熊市趋势（宽熊通道）和多头在当天晚些时候作为日线图上的买家向上突破的可能性持开放态度, 尝试以较低的价格进入
As I often say, most traders should assume the open will have a lot of trading range price action. This means most traders should consider not trading for the day’s first 6-12 bars.
- 正如我经常说的，大多数交易者应该假设开盘时会有很多交易区间价格行为。这意味着大多数交易者应该考虑不要在当天的前 6-12 个柱线进行交易
Most traders should try and catch the opening swing trade that typically begins before the end of the second hour. It often forms after a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom.
- 大多数交易者应该尝试抓住通常在第二个小时结束前开始的开盘摆动交易。它通常在双顶/双底或楔形顶/底之后形成

Emini intraday market update

The Emini had a small gap down on the open and rallied for two legs up to bar 18 (8:00 AM PT).
- Emini 在开盘时有一个小缺口，并在 18 号柱（太平洋时间上午 8:00）之前反弹了两条腿
The rally up to bar 18 had decent selling pressure, which increased the odds that it would be a complex leg in a trading range.
- 涨至 18 根柱线的反弹产生了相当大的抛售压力，这增加了它成为交易区间复杂腿的可能性
The bears got a strong reversal down to bar 23 (8:25 AM PT). The bears got close to the open of the day. However, they failed to reach it. The bulls got an endless pullback after the bear breakout down to bar 23, and the market got a strong breakout with a follow-through on bar 31 (9:05 AM PT).
- 空头在第 23 根柱线（太平洋时间上午 8 点 25 分）处出现强烈逆转。空头接近当天的开盘价。然而，他们未能达到目标。在熊市突破至第 23 根柱线后，多头无休止地回调，市场在第 31 根柱线（太平洋时间上午 9 点 05 分）上获得强劲突破并跟进
As of bar 34 (9:15 MA PT), the market is Always In Long and trying to reach the day’s high.
- 截至第 34 条柱线（9:15 MA PT），市场总是多头并试图达到当天的高点
Even if the market gets to a new high, it will probably evolve into a trading range, which means there will likely be sellers not far above the bar 19 high of the day.
- 即使市场创出新高，也可能会演变成一个交易区间，这意味着在 19 日高点上方不远的地方可能会有卖家
Traders should expect the day to remain a trading range day. The bears will want to close the day below the day’s open. However, they will need to develop more selling pressure first. This means sideways to up is more likely unless the bears can get enough selling pressure to make the market go sideways.
- 交易者应该预计当天仍将是一个交易区间。空头希望收盘价低于当天的开盘价。但是，他们首先需要形成更大的抛售压力。这意味着横盘上涨的可能性更大，除非空头能够获得足够的抛售压力使市场横盘整理