S&P Emini pre-open market analysis

Emini daily chart

The Emini gapped up yesterday, testing the high of April 4th. However, yesterday sold off early on and closed as a big bear trend bar.
- Emini 昨日高开低走，测试 4 月 4 日的高点。然而，昨天早早抛售并作为一个大的熊市趋势线收盘。
Yesterday’s close is big enough to be a surprise bar. This means that traders probably expect at least a small 2nd leg down. If today is a bull bar, it will likely have a weak bull close with a tail above.
- 昨天的收盘价大到足以成为一个惊喜柱。这意味着交易者可能预计至少会出现第二次小幅下跌。如果今天是牛市，它很可能会以影线在上方的弱牛市收盘。
The bears see yesterday’s close as a double top with April 4th. They want a break below the neckline (April 6th) of the double top and for the market to fall below the March 22nd high.
- 空头将昨天的收盘价视为 4 月 4 日的双顶。他们希望跌破双顶的颈线（4 月 6 日），并希望市场跌破 3 月 22 日的高点
The bears had a strong close yesterday, which means that they have an opportunity to get a strong follow-through bar today. If the bears can get a follow-through bar similar in size to yesterday, that would increase the odds of lower prices.
- 空头昨天收盘强劲，这意味着他们今天有机会获得强劲的跟进柱。如果空头能够获得与昨天相似大小的跟进柱，那将增加价格下跌的可能性。
I have been saying that the rally up to April 4th is stalling under important resistance (February 2nd high). This means traders are taking profits anticipating a failed breakout above the February high. This is similar to the March 13th selloff that tested the December 2022 low.
- 我一直在说，直到 4 月 4 日的反弹在重要阻力（2 月 2 日高点）下停滞不前。这意味着交易员预期突破 2 月高点失败后获利了结。这类似于 3 月 13 日测试 2022 年 12 月低点的抛售。
The reasons above make me think there is an increased risk of a deep pullback or a possible downside breakout that tests back to 4,000.
- 上述原因让我认为深度回调或可能下行突破测试回 4,000 点的风险增加。
If the bears get a reversal back down to 4,000 or lower, they need to show more signs of strength.
- 如果空头逆转回落至 4,000 点或更低，他们需要显示更多的力量迹象。
Overall, the bears have done well with yesterday’s close. However, if bears fail to get follow-through over the next few bars, the bulls will buy, which could drive the market above the February high. This increases the odds of at least a brief 2nd leg down.
- 总体而言，空头在昨天收盘时表现不错。然而，如果空头未能在接下来的几个柱中得到跟进，多头就会买入，这可能会推动市场突破 2 月高点。这增加了至少短暂的第二回合下跌的几率。

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

Emini is up 12 points in the overnight Globex session.
The Globex market has been going sideways for most of the overnight session.
- 在隔夜的大部分时间里，Globex 市场一直在横盘整理。
Traders should be neutral going into the U.S. Session.
- 交易者在进入美国交易时段时应保持中立
Traders should pay close attention to the first 6 – 12 bars of the day. The first 6 bars can often give a trader much insight into what the rest of the day will look like, so it is important to be patient and remember that there are 81 bars in the day, which means there is plenty of time to place 1-3 trades.
- 交易者应密切关注当天的前 6-12 根柱线。前 6 个柱通常可以让交易者深入了解当天剩余时间的情况，因此耐心等待并记住一天中有 81 个柱很重要，这意味着有足够的时间放置 1 -3 笔交易。
Most traders should wait for the market to form a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom and see if it leads to a swing trade. A swing trade usually begins before the end of the second hour, and often, it starts around bar 12.
- 大多数交易者应该等待市场形成双顶/双底或楔形顶/底，看看它是否会导致波段交易。波段交易通常在第二个小时结束前开始，通常在第 12 根柱线左右开始。
Most traders should focus on catching the opening swing trade because it often leads to trade with good risk/reward and decent probability.
- 大多数交易者应该专注于抓住开盘摆动交易，因为它通常会导致交易具有良好的风险/回报和不错的可能性。
Traders should expect a trading range day until they have reason to believe otherwise. The bulls will want to reverse yesterday’s bear close. However, the size of the bar will increase the risk of sellers on any bounce today.
- 交易者应该期待一个交易区间日，直到他们有理由相信否则。多头将希望扭转昨天的空头收盘价。然而，柱的大小将增加卖家今天反弹的风险。
Since yesterday’s bar is big and within a tight trading range on the daily chart, this will increase the risk of disappointing follow-through today. Both reasons above make me think the market will form a trading range today.
- 由于昨天的柱线很大并且在日线图上处于狭窄的交易区间内，这将增加今天跟进令人失望的风险。以上两个原因让我认为今天市场将形成一个交易区间
Lastly, because yesterday is a big bear bar and a second entry short with April 4th, the bulls may give up below today’s bar. This means that traders should be mindful of a possible bear trend day today, and if the bears start to get strong, bear closes, they must not be in denial.
- 最后，因为昨天是一个大熊市和 4 月 4 日的第二次空头，多头可能会在今天的柱线下方放弃。这意味着交易者应该注意今天可能出现的熊市趋势日，如果空头开始走强，熊市收盘，他们一定不能否认

Emini intraday market update

The Emini gapped up on the open and formed a double bottom with bar 6.
- Emini 开盘跳空，并在第 6 根柱线处形成双底。
This led to a strong 3-bar bull breakout, and the market became Always In Long.
- 这导致强劲的 3 条牛市突破，市场变得永远在多头。
The market went sideways for 15 bars to the moving average and recently got a second leg up at 9:30 AM PT.
- 市场横盘整理移动平均线 15 根柱线，最近在太平洋时间上午 9:30 再次上涨
While the market is Always In Long at 9:40 AM PT, it is at important resistance (Yesterday’s 11:20 AM PT major lower high).
- 虽然市场在太平洋时间上午 9:40 始终处于多头状态，但它处于重要阻力位（昨天太平洋时间上午 11:20 的主要较低高点）。
While the market can continue much higher, it will probably try to stay within yesterday’s range and form an inside day.
- 虽然市场可以继续走高，但它可能会试图保持在昨天的区间内并形成内包日
If the bears can develop more selling pressure, that will increase the odds of a pullback to 4,144, which is the midpoint of the 15-bar trading range.
- 如果空头能够形成更大的抛售压力，回调的可能性将增加至 4,144，这是 15 条交易区间的中点
Traders should expect the market to evolve into a trading range soon. Less likely, the day remains a trend for the rest of the day.
- 交易者应该期望市场很快进入交易区间。不太可能，这一天在剩下的时间里仍然是一个趋势
Since trends typically evolve into trading ranges, this means that the odds favor either a continued bull trend, or a trading range for the rest of the day.
- 由于趋势通常会演变成交易区间，这意味着可能性有利于持续的牛市趋势或当天剩余时间的交易区间