Trading Update: Tuesday April 4, 2023
S&P Emini pre-open market analysis
Emini daily chart
- Yesterday was a follow-through bar, and the market reached the bear trendline (blue line). Emini risk getting big for bulls.
- 昨天趋势跟进，市场到达熊市趋势线（蓝线）。 Emini 多头风险变大
- At the moment, the momentum up from the March 24th low is strong enough to increase the odds of a second leg up after any pullback.
- 目前，自3/24低点以来的上涨势头强劲，足以增加任何回调后第二轮上涨的可能性
- Traders should expect the market to pull back soon for a day or two. The risk is getting big for the bulls. Therefore, traders will likely begin to take partial profits.
- 交易者应该预料到市场会很快回落一两天。多头面临的风险越来越大。因此，交易者可能会开始获利了结
- The bulls want a breakout far above the February 2nd high and rally to the August 16th high.
- 多头希望突破远高于2/2的高点并反弹至8/16的高点
- The bears want the rally to stall around the February high and form a double top.
- 空头希望涨势在2月高点附近停滞并形成双顶
- the market will probably pull back soon as bulls take partial profits.
- 随着多头获利了结，市场可能会很快回调
- Traders will pay close attention to see how deep the pullback will be.
- 交易者将密切关注回调的深度
- Traders will also pay close attention to the test of the February 2nd high. If the market starts to stall and go sideways under February 2023 high, that will increase risk of the rally being a buy vacuum test of resistance (February 2023). If the market breaks beyond February 2023 high and starts to go sideways above it, that will increase the odds of higher prices.
- 交易者也将密切关注对2/2高点的测试。如果市场开始停滞并在2023/2的高点下方横盘整理，这将增加反弹成为阻力买入真空测试（2023/2）的风险。如果市场突破2023/2的高点并开始在其上方横盘整理，那将增加价格上涨的可能性
- In general, strong bull trends break out beyond resistance and stall after the breakout. Legs within trading ranges will get close to the resistance level and start to go sideways just under it.
- 一般来说，强劲的牛市趋势会突破阻力并在突破后停滞。交易区间内的K线将接近阻力位并开始在其下方横盘整理
- Overall, it will be important to see what kind of pullback the Bulls get. Bears need to do more and demonstrate strength before they will be able to develop a credible swing short. One way they could do that is to make the market go sideways and form a lower high with the February 2nd high.
- 总的来说，重要的是要看看多头会得到什么样的回调。空头需要做更多并展示实力，然后才能发展出可靠的摆动空头。他们可以做到这一点的一种方法是让市场横盘整理并与2/2的高点形成一个较低的高点
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Emini is up 6 points in the overnight Globex session.
- Emini 在隔夜交易时段上涨6点
- The Globex market rallied in the early morning hours after going sideways for several bars last night.
- 市场在昨晚横盘整理几个柱线后，在清晨反弹
- Traders should assume that today will have a lot of trading range price action. This means traders should pay close attention to the open of the day, as it will likely be an important magnet today.
- 交易者应该假设今天会有很多交易区间价格行动。这意味着交易者应密切关注当天的开盘，因为它可能是今天的重要磁体
- The bulls will probably not get another bull trend day today, so if there is an early morning rally, traders will look to sell the rally similar to yesterday.
- 多头今天可能不会再出现牛市趋势日，因此如果出现清晨反弹，交易员将寻求卖出与昨天类似的反弹
- As always, most trades should wait for 6-12 bars before placing a trade unless they are comfortable with limit orders.
- 与往常一样，大多数交易者在下单前应等待 6-12 根柱线，除非他们对限价订单感到满意
- Most traders should try and catch the opening swing trade that usually forms a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom. The swing trade typically begins before the end of the second hour.
- 大多数交易者应该尝试抓住通常形成双顶/双底或楔形顶/底的开盘摆动交易。波段交易通常在第二个小时结束前开始
- Overall, traders should assume that the bulls will probably be disappointed today, which means the market will probably get a close below the open or a weak bull bar.
- 总的来说，交易者应该假设多头今天可能会失望，这意味着市场可能收盘价低于开盘价或形成小阳线
Yesterday’s Emini setups
